Syllabus: OCR - A and AS Level Business
Module: Business Objectives and Strategy
Lesson: Risk and Uncertainty

Introduction

In the OCR A and AS Level Business course, the topic of risk and uncertainty sits within the broader theme of business objectives and strategy. It’s a crucial area that challenges students to think like real-world decision-makers. According to the OCR specification, learners are expected to understand not only how strategic choices are made, but also how risk is assessed and managed as part of that process.

This topic offers fertile ground for bridging theoretical models with contemporary business thinking. Whether it’s evaluating the risk of launching a new product or entering a new market, the emphasis is on applying strategy in dynamic, uncertain conditions—just like in the real world.

Key Concepts

The OCR syllabus highlights several key elements under this topic:

• Types of Risk: Including financial, operational, strategic, and compliance risk.

• Uncertainty vs Risk: Understanding that risk involves known probabilities, while uncertainty does not.

• Risk Management: Methods businesses use to identify, assess and mitigate risks (e.g. SWOT analysis, scenario planning).

• Quantitative Tools: Use of decision trees and expected value to make reasoned strategic decisions.

• Influences on Risk Appetite: Such as leadership style, market conditions, corporate objectives, and stakeholder interests.

• Contingency Planning: Preparation for worst-case scenarios to ensure business continuity.

This content is assessed within the A Level Unit 3: Decision-making to improve business performance, but also draws on prior understanding from AS-level strategic objectives and business environments.

Real-World Relevance

Risk and uncertainty have rarely been more relevant. From the supply chain impacts of geopolitical conflict to the risks posed by AI on data security, businesses are continuously navigating uncertainty.

Case in point: When Tesco invested heavily in its cashless store model, it faced uncertainty in consumer adoption. Early pilots revealed a mix of convenience benefits and technical issues. The company used iterative risk evaluation to tweak the model before full rollout.

Another example: BrewDog’s strategic expansion into international markets came with currency risk and reputational uncertainty. Their approach involved scenario planning and engaging local partners to mitigate unknowns.

Teaching through such examples helps students connect classroom theory to the strategic decisions made by real companies.

How It’s Assessed

OCR exam questions around this topic commonly require students to demonstrate layered thinking:

• Explain: Define risk/uncertainty and describe how it affects business decisions.

• Analyse: Use tools like decision trees or SWOT to analyse scenarios.

• Evaluate: Compare strategies or weigh up outcomes in response to given risks.

Students may be presented with case studies and asked to:

• Draw and interpret decision trees.

• Calculate expected values and net gains.

• Recommend actions under uncertainty with justification.

Command words include: analyse, evaluate, calculate, justify.

Enterprise Skills Integration

This topic aligns seamlessly with Enterprise Skills’ focus on active learning through decision-making:

• Problem-Solving: Identifying risk scenarios and navigating trade-offs.

• Decision-Making: Using structured tools (decision trees, expected value) to make strategic choices.

• Critical Thinking: Weighing different outcomes and building a reasoned judgement.

• Commercial Awareness: Understanding how risk appetite shapes business strategy.

Enterprise Skills’ Business Simulations immerse students in fictional business environments where they must choose pricing strategies, manage risks, and adapt to market shifts in real time—bringing this topic to life.

Careers Links

Understanding risk and uncertainty builds foundational thinking for roles such as:

• Business Analyst

• Risk Manager

• Management Consultant

• Investment Analyst

• Operations Manager

It directly supports Gatsby Benchmarks 4, 5 and 6:

• Linking curriculum to careers.

• Providing encounters with real decision-making.

• Creating simulated experiences of the workplace.

Teaching Notes

What works:

• Use real company case studies to show evolving strategies under uncertainty.

• Practice quantitative tools like decision trees with scaffolded support.

• Encourage group discussion on how different stakeholders may view risk differently.

Common pitfalls:

• Students often confuse risk and uncertainty—reinforce the difference through examples.

• Some struggle with decision tree accuracy. Break the process into clear, visual steps.

Extension activities:

• Run a mock boardroom decision session using a fictional case (e.g. expanding into a new market).

• Use Enterprise Skills’ Business Simulations to model the impact of risky decisions over multiple rounds.